The Interplay of Supply and Demand: Understanding San Francisco's High Housing Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Sky High Real Estate Prices

San Francisco has long been known for its high cost of living, especially when it comes to housing. In recent years, the city's housing market has become even more expensive, with prices continuing to rise. This can largely be attributed to the interplay of supply and demand in the city's housing market.

Supply and demand are two key factors that impact the price of housing in San Francisco. When demand for housing in the city is high and supply is low, prices tend to go up. Conversely, when demand is low and supply is high, prices tend to go down. This is the basic economics of the housing market.

There are a few reasons why the supply of housing in San Francisco has not kept up with demand. One major factor is the city's restrictive zoning laws and regulations, which make it difficult to build new housing. In addition, the cost of construction in San Francisco is notoriously high, which further limits the amount of new housing that is built.

Another factor contributing to the high cost of housing in San Francisco is the city's strong job market. Many tech companies are based in the Bay Area, which has led to an influx of highly paid workers who are willing to pay top dollar for housing. This increased demand for housing has put further pressure on prices.

Additionally, San Francisco has limited geographic space, which means that the supply of available land for new housing is limited. This has led to increased competition for existing housing units, which further drives up prices.

Overall, the high cost of housing in San Francisco is largely driven by the interplay of supply and demand in the city's housing market. While there are a variety of factors that impact the supply of housing in the city, the limited supply of land, restrictive zoning laws, and high construction costs are major contributors. Meanwhile, the city's strong job market and high demand for housing among highly paid workers also drive up prices. As a result, housing in San Francisco remains one of the most expensive in the country.

Even with people leaving the San Francisco Bay area, prices remain elevated because of the huge supply and demand imbalance:

"More than 90,000 people left Silicon Valley during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an annual report that found a slowing “exodus” has reverted the tech center’s population to 2013 levels.

A net total of 43,800 residents moved out of the region from July 2021 through June 2022, the fourth consecutive year that the region’s overall population has shrunk and the second year that net domestic migration topped 40,000, according to the Silicon Valley Index. The annual look at the health of the region found housing prices and job numbers continuing to rise well into last year, even as the number of people in the region returned to levels not seen since Google Glass still had a chance to be the next big thing." - MarketWatch

To expand on these dynamics even further, @Mikesimonsen, Co-founder CEO Altos Research, has a great Twitter thread on how home prices can "... still be so unaffordable when the population is declining?"

In short, easy as Mike notes, "The median home can (forever?) remain unaffordable to the median income in the Bay Area because only the richest 2000 can buy."

Again, there are countless variables at play in any local housing market, but at the end of the day supply and demand rules the roost and strongly overshadows many extenuating circumstances.

When you have so many people chasing such a limited supply, there's always a group doing well (good economy or bad) to create a market that wouldn't otherwise exist if there wasn't such a large housing supply / demand imbalance.

Don't lose sight of this otherwise your perspective will be skewed towards what makes sense comparatively even though the same dynamics don't exist across all housing markets!

Unlocking the Secrets of Success in Real Estate Investing: Insights from Brandon Turner

Real estate investing is a popular choice for many people looking to build wealth and secure their financial future. However, despite its potential rewards, the majority of people who venture into this field fail to achieve their goals. Why is this the case? What are the keys to success in real estate investing? In this blog post, we delve into these questions and more as we explore the video "Why Most Won’t Succeed in Real Estate Investing with Brandon Turner."

Who is Brandon Turner?

Brandon Turner is a well-known real estate investor, author, and educator. He is a co-host of the BiggerPockets podcast, a popular resource for real estate investors, and has written several books on real estate investing. In the video, Brandon provides valuable insights and advice on why most people fail in real estate investing and how to increase the chances of success in this field.

Real Estate Education and Preparation

One of the key takeaways from the video is the importance of education and preparation. According to Brandon, many people jump into real estate investing without fully understanding the risks and rewards involved. To succeed in this field, it is essential to educate yourself on the various investment strategies, as well as the legal and financial aspects of real estate investing. It is also important to have a clear understanding of your goals and what you hope to achieve through your investments.

Discipline and Perseverance to Become a Real Estate Pro

Another important factor that Brandon highlights in the video is the need for discipline and perseverance. Real estate investing is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and success in this field often requires hard work, patience, and persistence. It is important to have a long-term outlook and to be willing to weather the ups and downs of the market.  

The Magic Happens When You Put in the Hard Work

This is key.  It requires work.  Deals don't fall on your lap while you're sitting on the couch hoping for something to role your way.  Most people are drawn in because of the potential "rags to riches", but don't realize real estate doesn't turn into a "money tree" without tilling the ground, planting the seeds, and nurturing the seeds until your trees mature enough to bare fruit.  Again, this doesn't happen overnight.  Once most realize this, they move on and lose any shot at living up to their potential. 

Networking and Building Relationships to Build Your Real Estate Business

In addition to education and perseverance, Brandon also stresses the importance of networking and building relationships in the real estate industry. Having a solid network of professionals, such as real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and contractors, can help you make informed decisions and find the best investment opportunities.

Take Action

Finally, Brandon emphasizes the importance of taking action. No amount of knowledge or preparation will lead to success if you don’t take the necessary steps to put your plans into action. Whether it's finding your first investment property or expanding your portfolio, it is essential to take calculated risks and be willing to put in the effort required to succeed.

This BiggerPockets video, "Why Most Won’t Succeed in Real Estate Investing with Brandon Turner" provides valuable insights into the keys to success in real estate investing. From education and preparation to discipline and perseverance, to networking and taking action, Brandon provides a comprehensive overview of what it takes to succeed in this challenging but rewarding field.

Remember, none of this becomes a reality without taking what you've learned and putting it to use.  Again, the magic happens in the work.  Doing the small things and building the good habits.  Doing this consistently is no secret.  The secret is most won't play the long game to achieve their goals, but I trust that won't be you!

S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index - October 26, 2010 Release

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - Prices stable today and headed lower tomorrow was the story of the last housing report.  Today, as expected by most analysts, the report points to housing prices heading lower again.

"A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figures, as compared to July, indicating that the housing market continues to bounce along the recent lows," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. Over the last four months both the 10- and 20-City Composites show slowing growth, after sustaining consistent gains since their April 2009 troughs.

"The month-over-month growth rates tell the same story. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites saw a decline in the month of August as compared to July levels. The 10- and 20-City Composites fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Indeed, the housing market appears to have stabilized at new lows. At this time, it does not seem that any of the markets are hanging on to the temporary momentum caused by the homebuyers' tax credits."

(S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - 

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In consideration of current economic conditions and recent housing data that continues to point towards increasing inventory levels in many locales, the downward pricing trend highlighted in this report should continue to be reflected in the next S&P / Case-Shiller release.

Actual S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index PDF report: "Home Prices Increases Slow Down in August According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices".

More to come ...

CoreLogic: Home Price Index for August 2010

According to the CoreLogic Home Price Index released reflecting August 2010 data, home prices declined 1.5% year over year nationally and values appear to be be trending lower:

"Price declines are geographically expanding as 78 out of the largest 100 metropolitan areas are experiencing declines, up from 58 just one month ago” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic."

12 Month House Price Index Change: Single-family combined series

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12 Month House Price Index Change: Single-family combined excluding distressed series.

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From a national perspective, CoreLogic's report continues to paint a grim housing picture and the trending lower numbers point to more housing woes ahead.

Will the Real Owner Please Stand Up?

It's a three ring foreclosure circus. It would actually be funny if this really didn't impact and negatively affect real people.

When will these institutions every be held accountable for their criminal practices? What a mess!

The Mortgage Mess

It's definitely good politics to claim that you have to protect the private sector, lumping small business owners who truly compete in a free market with the uber / multinational corporations that successfully lobby our congressmen and women on a daily basis to write the laws that create the market they want.

Many good arguments / points made in this video regarding the banks, the mortgage mess, and the housing market, but minutes 6:00 - 7:00 is definitely a good listen.

As Barry Ritholtz noted towards the end of the video, "we have the best Senate money can buy!"

Disgusting, but quite clearly true if you remotely pay attention to how things really operate!

Do Housing Fundamentals Really Matter?

If you're like me, you spend countless hours pouring through data trying to make sense of the underlying economic fundamentals to understand what's happening today and what the data means for tomorrow.  In short, we're always looking for the trend to clue us into what we hope to be sound investment decisions.

Needless to say, rolling out of bed and waiving your finger in the air to determine which way the wind is blowing is not going to be a consistently successful approach.  However, at a certain point, we can outsmart ourselves by basing our decisions solely on what the underlying fundamentals are telling us.

How many home buyers are basing their decisions on the latest S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index?  Gee, let's hold off on making this purchase since the S&P/Case-Shiller index is a lagging housing indicator.  Looks like Diesel consumption picked up for the month of .....  More QE2 is coming in Q4?  Temporary Census Bureau jobs are beginning to clear the system and will have less of an impact on the employment picture moving forward.  You get the point.

Spending time to get a grasp on the fundamentals definitely helps to give clarity to our decisions, but what good are our decisions if the overwhelming majority isn't using the same data and is making decisions based on a completely different perspective?  Isn't this different perspective just as important (if not more important) to understand and to take into consideration?

Courtesy of Jim the Realtor, check out the video below regarding an auction of a lot in Southern California.  Jim notes that the data points to a certain number regarding the sale of the lot, but the actual final sales price defies the data.  In fact, pushing forward, the sale (if it goes through) will greatly skew the data / comps for the next potential buyer in the same neighborhood.

Human nature and the countless intangibles drove this sale while the data floated out the window ... If you think this is an isolated incident or this only happens in high-end micro housing markets, think again!